Rise.Lead.Repeat. | November 2025 Newsletter

Macro Pulse

The Federal Reserve cut rates again in late October, lowering the target range to around 3.75–4.00%. The move signals growing concern about a cooling labor market and sluggish private construction activity.

Total U.S. construction spending is hovering near $2.1 trillion, down roughly 3% year over year. Highway and street work remains steady, but residential has softened under affordability pressure.

Industry forecasters expect total construction spend to grow just 1% in 2025, following a strong 2024. Cement demand is on track for a modest decline again this year before rebounding in 2026-27.

Translation: Demand is tilting harder toward publicly funded horizontal work. Aggregates, asphalt, and ready-mix tied to DOT lettings, bridges, and water infrastructure look far more resilient than private tilt-up or multifamily projects in 2025.

Industry Moves

Policy is quietly doing the heavy lifting this quarter. NSSGA continues pushing Congress to stabilize federal infrastructure funding and ensure long-term visibility for materials producers.

NAPA is leading the charge on sustainability, expanding its Road Forward initiative — a blueprint for net-zero asphalt production by 2050 — while promoting incentives for reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) usage and new carbon-reduction technologies.

On the corporate front, U.S.-based Amrize (formerly the North American materials business of Holcim) is accelerating its pivot toward engineered building systems and circular materials within the U.S. market — even as domestic cement volumes soften. Their focus is clear: margin over tonnage, innovation over inertia.

Signal: Capital is rotating toward efficiency, sustainability, and product differentiation — not just raw volume growth.

Leadership Insight | Execution > Mood

The storylines may sound bearish — cooling demand, cautious forecasts, slower private spend. But don’t confuse slow with stagnant.

2025 isn’t a collapse year. It’s a grinder year — one where the gap between the disciplined and the distracted will widen.

Leaders who treat this phase as a training ground will win the next cycle. Here’s how:

• Clarify your backlog mix. Focus your best people and uptime on projects with locked funding.

• Protect your margins. Price each pour and ton as if it’s your last chance to defend profitability.

• Build resilience now. Cross-train, modernize your data visibility, and lean into sustainability mandates instead of waiting for them.

When the upswing comes — and it will — the businesses that stayed sharp in the grind will move faster, serve better, and lead stronger.

Resilience isn’t built when everything’s booming. It’s built when demand is slow and discipline matters most.